The Risks And Opportunities of The Price Fluctuation in Tungsten Carbide

The Risks and Opportunities of the Price Fluctuation in Tungsten Carbide

For practitioners in Zhuzhou, the "Capital of tungsten carbide", the past year has witnessed not only a doubling of prices but also a fundamental reshaping of the cost logic.

I. Market Overview: From "Frenzy" to "Rational Game"

As of early April 2026, the tungsten carbide market is experiencing a sharp correction from its peak. Data shows that the mainstream quote for medium-grain tungsten carbide powder has dropped from its March peak (about 2,340 yuan/kg) to the range of 2,240-2,275 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of approximately 2%. The price of black tungsten concentrate (65%) has also fallen below the psychological threshold of one million yuan, dropping to 930,000-950,000 yuan/ton. Market sentiment has rapidly shifted from "extreme reluctance to sell" in March to "cautious observation", with light trading and significantly increased bargaining space.

II. In-depth Analysis: Who Pushed Up the Price of the "Industrial Teeth"?

The essence of this round of market movement is the resonance of "rigid supply contraction" and "revaluation of strategic resources", rather than a simple demand explosion.

Supply-side "chokehold": The total control indicators for domestic tungsten mining have been continuously tightened, coupled with strict environmental and safety inspections in major production areas such as Hunan and Jiangxi, severely restricting the release of compliant production capacity. The entire industry's social inventory is at a historical low, intensifying panic buying in the spot market.

Demand-side "shift": Besides traditional hard alloy and tool demands, the explosive growth of tungsten wire for photovoltaic (the backbone of diamond wire) has become a new demand driver. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors have pushed up the strategic premium of tungsten in military and armor-piercing applications, taking it out of the traditional industrial metal pricing framework.

Emotion and capital: A large amount of speculative capital flooded into the small metal sector earlier, fueling the market. As profits were realized in April, the cooling of capital is the direct driver of the recent price correction.

III. Future Outlook: High-level operation will become the "new normal"

Although short-term correction pressure exists, the industry consensus is that "easy to rise, hard to fall" will be the main theme in the next 1-2 years.

Short-term (Q2): Expected to maintain weak volatility. Downstream alloy factories have a strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, and their purchasing strategy is mainly "replenishing inventory as needed", lacking the volume to support another sharp price increase.

Medium and long-term: The policy constraints on the supply side (mining quotas, export controls) are long-term, while the demand for photovoltaic tungsten wire and high-end manufacturing is sustainable. The price center of tungsten carbide has permanently shifted upward, and the industry needs to adapt to operating in a high-cost environment above 1,500-2,000 yuan/kg.